Risk factors for European winter oilseed rape production under climate change

Abstract Winter oilseed rape ( Brassica napus L., WOSR) is the main oilseed crop in Europe, and it is mainly grown for biofuel and edible oil. The crop is grown widespread in Europe with most of the production area located in Germany, Poland, Czech Republic and France. How current and future WOSR production is influenced by climatic riskfactors was explored by integrating a phenologymodel with climatic indices relating to crop yield. The phenologymodel based on the BRASNAP-PH model performed well when tested against data from variety trials across Europe. The phenologymodel was integrated into the Agriclim model. To quantify non-optimal agroclimatic growing conditions with respect to physical and biological stressors, a total of nine agroclimatic indices were calculated, of which one reflects a major disease ( Phomastem canker). Agriclim simulations across Europe show that current cropping area agree well with the area with least calculated stress factors. Projections under climate change were based on climate scenarios generated by the LARS-WG weather generator for GISS and HadGEM models RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate projections (2081–2100), which predicted that the crop will most likely suffer from low temperatures (early and late frost) in areas where the crop is currently grown. In the southern regions of Europe, the crops will suffer from droughts. Based on the model runs with climate scenarios, the North European regions (Boreal environmental zone) will become more favourable for growing WOSR. The type of adverse conditions for European WOSR growing areas is likely to change under climate change, underpinning the need for developing adaptive managementstrategies and future breeding strategies for crop cultivars to guarantee a well-established and healthy crop under climate change.