No broad decline of breeding monarch butterflies in North America: implications for conservation efforts

Many insects are in clear decline, with monarch butterflies (Danaus plexippus) drawing particular attention as a flagship species. Falling numbers of overwintering monarchs are well documented, but there has been debate regarding population trends of summer breeding populations. Here, we compile a series of long-term monarch monitoring datasets, some which are analyzed here for the first time, that reveal highly variable responses across the migratory geographic range, but no broad net decline in numbers of breeding monarchs. We also did not find evidence that sampling biased towards natural sites was masking declines at disturbed sites. Overall, our results suggest a robust resiliency in summer populations that thus far has allowed recovery from losses during the winter. Thus, monarchs may not require as much breeding habitat restoration as once thought, and focus should be on conserving the fall and spring migration.