Personalizing localized prostate cancer: Validation of a combined clinical cell-cycle risk (CCR) score threshold for prognosticating benefit from multimodality therapy

Abstract Introduction The combined clinical cell-cycle risk (CCR) score is a validated model that combines the cell cycle progression (CCP) score with the UCSF Cancer of the Prostate Risk Assessment (CAPRA) score. This score determines the risk of progressive disease for men with prostate cancer. Here, we further validate the prognostic ability of the CCR score and evaluate its ability to help determine which patients may safely forgo multimodality therapy. Patients and Methods We evaluated the CCR and a CCR-based multimodality threshold (2.112) in a retrospective, multi-institutional cohort of men with National Comprehensive Cancer Network intermediate- or high-risk localized disease (N=718). These men received single or multimodality therapy [androgen deprivation (ADT) with radiation (RT), or surgery with adjuvant RT or hormones]. Results CCR score prognosticated metastasis for single-modality therapy, as a continuous variable (HR 3.97; 95% CI 2.61-6.06) and when dichotomized at the threshold (HR 15.90; 95% CI 5.43-46.52). The 10-year Kaplan-Meier risk for those receiving single modality (RT or surgical) therapy with CCR scores below and above the threshold for single-modality treatment was 4.3% (95% CI 1.0-17.1%) and 20.4% (95% CI 13.2-30.7%), respectively. Using the threshold, 27% of men with newly-diagnosed high-risk and 73% with unfavorable intermediate-risk disease could avoid multimodality therapy. Conclusions Patients with CCR scores below the multimodality threshold (2.112) may safely forgo multimodality therapy. The CCR score can be used as a decision aid to counsel men whether or not single modality therapy would be sufficient for their intermediate or high-risk prostate cancer.