A field study to predict Cd bioaccumulation in a soil-wheat system: application of a geochemical model

Abstract An accurate model to predict Cd accumulation in crops based on soil properties would facilitate evaluations of soil quality and the potential risk posed by metals. However, given the heterogeneity of soil, such models are difficult to establish on large regional scales. This study for the first time examined the applicability of a multi-surface speciation model (MSM) in predicting Cd accumulation in wheat at a regional field scale, based on 140 soil-wheat paired samples collected from a 205-km2 field. The MSM resulted in a better correlation between Cd accumulation in wheat grain (R2 = 0.75) and roots (R2 = 0.74) than obtained with chemical extraction methods (total Cd in soil, 0.01 M CaCl2, and 0.43 M HNO3). In addition, while the performance of the MSM was comparable to that of a traditional multiple regression model, a parameter-fitting process was not required. The predictive ability of the MSM was further used to assess and predict the soil Cd risk and to develop a soil Cd sensitivity map to better localize areas of greatest sensitivity to Cd contamination. The results showed that the MSM can serve as a useful tool for regional soil risk assessments and thus in the development of soil protection measures.