Optimal harvest responses to environmental forecasts depend on resource knowledge and how it can be used

Managing natural resources under large-scale environmental fluctuations like the El Nino Southern Oscillation(ENSO) is likely to become increasingly important under climate change. Forecasts of environmental conditions are improving, but the best responseto an unfavorable forecast remains unclear; many practitioners advocate reducing harvestas a more precautionary approach, while prior economic theory favors increasing harvest. Using logistic and age-structured fisheries models, we show that informational constraints — uncertain stock estimates and restrictions on harvestpolicies — play a central role in choosing how to respond to a forecasted shock. With perfect knowledge and no policy constraints, risk-neutralmanagers should increase harvestwhen a negative shock is forecast. However, informational constraints may drive the optimal response to a forecast of a negative shock toward or away from precaution. Precautionary forecast responses arise when informational constraints make the harvestpolicy ...