Inferring Risks of Coronavirus Transmission from Community Household Data
2021
The response of many governments to the COVID-19 pandemic has involved measures to control
within- and between-household transmission, providing motivation to improve understanding of
the absolute and relative risks in these contexts. Here, we perform exploratory, residual-based, and
transmission-dynamic household analysis of the Office for National Statistics (ONS) COVID-19
Infection Survey (CIS) data from 26 April 2020 to 15 July 2021 in England. This provides evidence
for: (i) temporally varying rates of introduction of infection into households broadly following the
trajectory of the overall epidemic and vaccination programme; (ii) Susceptible-Infectious Transmission Probabilities (SITPs) of within-household transmission in the 15-35% range; (iii) the emergence
of the Alpha and Delta variants, with the former being around 50% more infectious than wildtype
and 35% less infectious than Delta within households; (iv) significantly (in the range 25-300%)
more risk of bringing infection into the household for workers in patient-facing roles pre-vaccine;
(v) increased risk for secondary school-age children of bringing the infection into the household
when schools are open; (vi) increased risk for primary school-age children of bringing the infection
into the household when schools were open since the emergence of new variants.
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