A climate-sensitive empirical growth and yield model for forest management planning of even-aged beech stands
2016
The optimization of forest management under climate change uncertainty requires a comparison of many alternative management options under different climate scenarios and the use of stochastic and adaptive approaches. Empirical growth and yield models are highly suitable for this, provided they include sensitivity to environmental influences. Here, we present a
climate-sensitiveempirical growth and yield model that is based on the
direct integrationof environmental effects in dynamic growth and
survival functions, which allows for the evaluation of changing site conditions over time. Individual-tree diameter and height growth and the probability of a tree to survive any 5-year period were modelled for even-aged beech (
Fagus sylvatica) stands in Switzerland using a distance-independent approach. Changing site conditions were based on a drought index (locally adjusted water balance) and sum of
degree-days. The data for fitting the model were taken from 30 permanent yield plots repeatedly measured from 1930 to 2010. Reasonable results were obtained in the model evaluation: (1) validation against independent National
Forest Inventorydata indicated that the incorporation of drought and sum of
degree-daysin the model was appropriate; (2) accurate simulations over around 50 years of past
stand developmentwere achieved (for changes in
basal areaover 5-year measurements in all plots, the bias was 3 % and the root mean square error 32 %); and (3) the impact of climate change may vary considerably along the range of current site conditions. We thus conclude that the model can be used in management planning under climate change uncertainty.
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