Assessing microbial risk through event-based pathogen loading and hydrodynamic modelling
2019
Abstract The aim of this study was to assess the variability of microbial risk associated with drinking water under various contaminant loading conditions in a drinking water source. For this purpose, a probabilistic-deterministic approach was applied to estimate the loadings of
Cryptosporidium,
Giardia, and Escherichia coli (E. coli) from fecal contamination sources during both dry and wet weather conditions. The relative importance of loads originating from various fecal contamination sources was also determined by a probabilistic approach. This study demonstrates that water
resource recoveryfacilities were the dominant source of
Giardia, yet rivers were more important with regards to
Cryptosporidium. Estimated loadings were used as input to a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model of Lake Ontario; the fate and transport of microbial organisms were simulated at the influent of a drinking water intake. Discharge-based hydrodynamic modelling results were compared to observed concentrations. Simulated probability distributions of concentrations at the intake were used as an input to a quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) model such that the variability of microbial risk in the context of drinking water could be examined. Depending on wind and currents, higher levels of fecal contamination reached the intake during wet weather loading scenarios. Probability distribution functions of
Cryptosporidium,
Giardiaand E. coli concentrations at the intake were significantly higher during wet weather conditions when compared to dry conditions (p
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