Modelling the biological half-life and seasonality of 14C in Fucus vesiculosus from the east coast of Ireland: Implications for the estimation of future trends

Abstract Radiocarbon levels were recorded in Fucus vesiculosus samples collected on a monthly basis over a three-year period at a site on the east coast of Ireland. The resulting data was analysed using a numerical model which estimates the transit times from the Sellafield plant to the sampling location, and the mean availability time of 14 C in seaweed. With the inclusion of a model parameter allowing for seasonal variability in uptake by the Fucus , good correlation was observed between the predicted and measured concentrations. Future temporal trends of 14 C Fucus concentrations along the eastern Irish coastline were modelled with the application of three possible prospective discharge scenarios, predicting 14 C Fucus concentrations to reduce to ambient background levels within 2.5-years of discharges being set to zero. Such projections may prove helpful in assessing the consequences of discharge management and policy making in the context of the OSPAR convention.