Modelling the spatial distribution of White Stork Ciconia ciconia breeding populations in Southeast Europe

Capsule Spatial environmental modellingwell predicted nesting distribution of the White storkin Southeast Europe and can be used in conservation planningwith respect to climate change.Aims To create spatial models for predicting White Storkpresence and densities in the Southeast Europe to identify areas of suitable habitat for White Storks.Methods We quantified the habitat used by nesting White storksin Southeast Europe. Using spatial modelling, we defined a set of free and available online environmental variables that predict the breeding localities of the species. We employed pseudo-absences and the krigingof the residuals in order to create predictive models of nest presence and density.Results The presence–absence model was found to be precise in predicting the presence of nests. Both density and presence of breeding pairswere best explained negatively by elevation, slope, minimum temperature during May, and distance to the nearest human settlementand positively by topographic wetness index, t...