Forgetting Rates on the Recency Portion of a Word List Predict Conversion from Mild Cognitive Impairment to Alzheimer’s Disease

Amnestic mild cognitive impairment has a greater risk of progressing to Alzheimer's disease (AD). Consistent with AD patients' distinctive deficit in consolidating new memory traces, in a recent study we demonstrated that the forgetting rate on the recency portion of a word list differentiates AD from other forms of dementia. In line with this finding, the aim of this study was to investigate whether increased recency forgetting could be a reliable index for predicting amnestic mild cognitive impairment (MCI) patients' conversion to AD. For this purpose, we compared accuracy in immediate and delayed recall from different portions of a word list in a group of patients with amnestic MCI who converted (C-MCI) or did not convert (S-MCI) to AD during a three-year follow-up period and in a group of normal controls. The results of the present study show that the forgetting from the recency portion of the list (operationalized as a ratio between immediate and delayed recall) was significantly larger in C-MCI than in S-MCI patients. Consistently, the hierarchical logistic regression analyses demonstrated that the recency ratio is a strong predictor of group membership. Similar to what occurs in full-blown AD patients, the results of our study suggest that the increased forgetting rate from the recency portion of the list in C-MCI patients is due to severely reduced efficiency in converting transitory short-term memory representations into stable long-term memory traces. This is consistent with prominent involvement of neuropathological changes in the cortical areas of the medial-temporal lobes and suggests that the recency ratio is a cognitive marker able to identify MCI patients who have a greater likelihood of progressing to AD.