An Analysis of Pharmaceutical Experience with Decades of Rat Carcinogenicity Testing: Support for a Proposal to Modify Current Regulatory Guidelines

Data collected from 182 marketed and nonmarketed pharmaceuticals demonstrate that there is little value gained in conducting a rat two-year carcinogenicity study for compounds that lack: (1) histopathologic risk factors for rat neoplasia in chronic toxicology studies, (2) evidence of hormonal perturbation, and (3) positive genetic toxicology results. Using a single positive result among these three criteria as a test for outcome in the two-year study, fifty-two of sixty-six rat tumorigens were correctly identified, yielding 79% test sensitivity. When all three criteria were negative, sixty-two of seventy-six pharmaceuticals (82%) were correctly predicted to be rat noncarcinogens. The fourteen rat false negatives had two-year study findings of questionable human relevance. Applying these criteria to eighty-six additional chemicals identified by the International Agency for Research on Cancer as likely human carcinogens and to drugs withdrawn from the market for carcinogenicity concerns confirmed their sens...