Multivariate output analysis for Markov chain Monte Carlo
2019
Markov chainMonte Carlo (MCMC) produces a correlated sample for estimating expectations with respect to a target distribution. A fundamental question is when should sampling stop so that we have good estimates of the desired quantities? The key to answering this question lies in assessing the Monte Carlo error through a multivariate
Markov chain
central limit theorem(CLT). The multivariate nature of this Monte Carlo error largely has been ignored in the MCMC literature. We present a multivariate framework for terminating simulation in MCMC. We define a multivariate
effective sample size, estimating which requires strongly
consistent estimatorsof the covariance matrix in the
Markov chainCLT; a property we show for the multivariate batch means estimator. We then provide a lower bound on the number of minimum effective samples required for a desired level of precision. This lower bound depends on the problem only in the dimension of the expectation being estimated, and not on the underlying stochastic process. This result is obtained by drawing a connection between terminating simulation via
effective sample sizeand terminating simulation using a relative standard deviation fixed-volume sequential stopping rule; which we demonstrate is an asymptotically valid procedure. The finite sample properties of the proposed method are demonstrated in a variety of examples.
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