Restoration dilemmas between future ecosystem and current species values: The concept and a practical approach in Estonian mires

Abstract Ecosystem restoration is gaining political and economic support worldwide, but its exact targets and costs often remain unclear. A key issue, both for predicting restoration success and assessing the costs, is the uncertainty of post-restoration development of the ecosystem. A specific combination of uncertainties emerges when ecosystem restoration would negatively affect pre-restoration species conservation values. Such dilemma appears to be common, but largely ignored in restoration planning; for example, in historically degraded forests, wetlands and grasslands that provide novel habitats for some threatened species. We present a framework of linked options for resolving the dilemma, and exemplify its application in extensive mirerestoration in Estonia. The broad options include: redistributing the risks by timing; relocating restoration sites; modifying restoration techniques; and managing for future habitats of the species involved. In Estonia, we assessed these options based on spatially explicit mapping of expected future states of the ecosystem, their uncertainty, and the distribution of species at risk. Such planning documentation, combined with follow-up monitoring and experimentation, can be used for adaptive management, by funding organizations and for academic research.