Model sensitivity of simulated yield of winter oilseed rape to climate change scenarios in Europe

Abstract Winter oilseed rape (WOSR) is Europe’s prime oilseed crop and is grown for biofuel and edible oil production. To investigate the effects of climate change on the yield of winter oilseed rape, two crop models (HERMES and HUME-OSR) were used. This study investigated the sensitivity of crop model parameters (as a proxy of plant traits) under climate change. For both models, a global sensitivity analysis was performed under current temperatures, an increase of 2 and 4 °C, in combination with −50 %, −25 %, current, +25 % and +50 % precipitation change, resulting in 15 combinations. The analysis was done for six different sites in Europe located in Germany, France, and the Czech Republic. The two models differ in model formalism; however, results show that the most sensitive parameters of WOSR for both models are associated with drought, both under current climatic conditions, and under changing temperatures and precipitation regimes. The sensitivity analysis shows that the most sensitive parameters for WOSR yield under climate change relate to plant traits affecting the growth of the vegetative phase.