Implications of climate change for the distribution of the water opossum (Chironectes minimus): habitat loss and conservation opportunities

Climate change is expected to impact the geographic distribution of marsupial species in the near future and this impact is likely to be accentuated for the more specialist species. The water opossum (Chironectes minimus) is the only semiaquatic marsupial in the world and is considered naturally rare throughout its geographical range. In the present study, we use ecological niche modeling (ENM) to predict the potential impacts of climate change on the geographic distribution of water opossum throughout Neotropical Region at the end of twenty-first century. We assess the vulnerability of this species by calculating its biotic velocity and identifying potential areas for the conservation of the water opossum based on the changes in climatically stable areas over time. These areas were also compared with the availability of remnant forest in the future. The area of potential distribution of the water opossum is projected to decrease 22% in the future. Water opossum populations will be more vulnerable to climate change in central Brazil, toward the southern extreme, and in some regions of the Amazon biome. In the future, C. minimus may be unable to colonize some areas in southern South America and in Mexico. Climatically stable areas are found in Central America, northwestern and coastal areas in northern South America, and southeastern Brazil, however, most of these areas will not have remnant forest in the future. Climatically stable areas with remnant forest areas are an opportunity for the development of effective long-term conservation measures for C. minimus.