Global potential distribution of Anastrepha grandis (Diptera, Tephritidae) under climate change scenarios

Abstract The current distribution of Anastrepha grandis, South American cucurbit fruit fly, under current climate conditions is restricted to South and Central America. However, this species is considered a quarantine pest and its presence in fruits is highly unwanted in exports, mainly to territories that offer conditions for their establishment. According to recent studies, changes in climate conditions may contribute to a range expansion due to the reduction of cold-induced stress, which still prevents the colonization of many areas. By predictive modeling, this study aimed to answer the question regarding the potential distribution of the South American cucurbit fruit fly under climate change, using two global circulation models – HadGEM2-ES and Miroc5 – in four change scenarios representing simulations of radiative force at 2.6 W.m-2, 4.5 W.m-2, 6 W.m-2, and 8.5 W.m-2 for the years of 2050 and 2070. All tested scenarios supply environmental suitability conditions for the establishment of the fly in other continents, especially in regions of central Africa, Southeast Asia, and Australasian territories. Furthermore, areas of medium and low suitability predicted in all future scenarios are larger than current metrics and the fly will benefit from climate change, as environmental suitability areas move forward towards the poles.