The importance and adaptive value of life history evolution for metapopulation dynamics

The performance of populations is affected by environmental change and the resulting evolutionary dynamics. The spatial configuration and size of patches is known to directly influence metapopulation dynamics (spatial forcing). These metapopulation dynamics are also affecting and affected by life history evolution. Given the relevance of metapopulation persistence for biological conservation, and the potential rescuing role of evolution, a firm understanding of the relevance of these eco-evolutionary processes is essential. We here follow a systems modelling approach to disentangle the role of metapopulation structure relative to evolution for metapopulation performance. We developed an individual based systems model that is strongly based and parameterized by results from experimental metapopulations with spider mites. This model enables us to perform virtual translocation and invasion experiments that would have been impossible to conduct in our experimental systems. We show that (1) metapopulation demography is more affected by spatial forcing than by observed life history evolution, but that life history evolution contributes up to 20 percent of the variation in demographic measures related to spatiotemporal variance in population sizes, (2) metapopulation performance is not enhanced by evolution, and (3) evolution is optimising individual performance in metapopulations when considering the importance of so far overlooked stress resistance evolution. We thus provide evidence that metapopulation-level selection maximises individual performance and more importantly, that - at least in our system - evolutionary changes impact metapopulation dynamics, especially factors related to local and metapopulation sizes.