The climatic debt of loggerhead sea turtle populations in a warming world
2019
Abstract
Phenologicalshifts, by initiating reproductive events earlier, in response to advanced seasonal warming is one of the most striking effects currently observed in wild populations. For
sea turtles,
phenologicaladjustment to warming conditions could be the most effective short-term adaptation option against climate change. We calculated future
phenologicalchanges required in seven important loggerhead (Caretta caretta) nesting populations to continue achieving a high hatching success and a sex ratio that lies within current ranges. Considering temperature-mediated
phenologicalchanges, we found that most populations (six out of seven) will not be able to keep pace with a warming climate. Under an optimistic climate warming scenario (RCP4.5), these populations will face a climatic debt, that is, a difference between required and expected
phenologicalchanges, and warming will substantially reduce hatching success and induce a feminization of
hatchlings, which may jeopardize their reproductive sustainability. Our approach offers the possibility to quantify the efficiency of
phenologicalshifts in
oviparousreptiles by considering physiological, developmental and
phenologicalprocesses.
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