Sea ice, rain-on-snow and tundra reindeer nomadism in Arctic Russia

Sea iceloss is accelerating in the Barents and Kara Seas (BKS). Assessing potential linkages between sea iceretreat/thinning and the region's ancient and unique social–ecologicalsystems is a pressing task. Tundranomadism remains a vitally important livelihood for indigenous Nenets and their large reindeer herds. Warming summer air temperatures have been linked to more frequent and sustained summer high- pressure systemsover West Siberia, Russia, but not to sea iceretreat. At the same time, autumn/winter rain-on-snow (ROS) events have become more frequent and intense. Here, we review evidence for autumn atmospheric warming and precipitation increases over Arctic coastal lands in proximity to BKS ice loss. Two major ROS events during November 2006 and 2013 led to massive winter reindeer mortality episodes on the Yamal Peninsula. Fieldwork with migratory herders has revealed that the ecological and socio-economic impacts from the catastrophic 2013 event will unfold for years to come. The suggested link between sea iceloss, more frequent and intense ROS events and high reindeer mortality has serious implications for the future of tundraNenets nomadism.