Southern Hemisphere Sensitivity to ENSO Patterns and Intensities: Impacts over Subtropical South America

2020
El Nino flavors influence Subtropical South American (SSA) rainfall through the generation of one or two quasi-stationary Rossby waves. However, it is not yet clear whether the induced wave trains depend on the El Nino pattern and/or its intensity. To investigate this, we performed different sensitivity experiments using an Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM) which was forced considering separately the Canonical and the El Nino Modoki patterns with sea surface temperature (SST) maximum anomalies of 1 and 3 °C. Experiments with 3 °C show that the Canonical El Nino induces two Rossby wave trains, a large one emanating from the western subtropical Pacific and a shorter one initiated over the central-eastern subtropical South Pacific. Only the shorter wave plays a role in generating negative outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) anomalies over SSA. On the other hand, 3 °C El Nino Modoki experiments show the generation of a large Rossby wave train that emanates from the subtropical western south Pacific and reaches South America (SA), promoting the development of negative OLR anomalies over SSA. Experiments with 1 °C show no impacts on OLR anomalies over SSA associated with El Nino Modoki. However, for the Canonical El Nino case there is a statistically significant reduction of the OLR anomalies over SSA related to the intensification of the upper level jet stream over the region. Finally, our model results suggest that SSA is more sensitive to the Canonical El Nino, although this result may be model dependent.
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