Significance testing testate amoeba water table reconstructions

Abstract Transfer functionsare valuable tools in palaeoecology, but their output may not always be meaningful. A recently-developed statistical test (‘randomTF’) offers the potential to distinguish among reconstructions which are more likely to be useful, and those less so. We applied this test to a large number of reconstructions of peatland water tabledepth basedon testate amoebae. Contrary to our expectations, a substantial majority (25 of 30) of these reconstructions gave non-significant results (P > 0.05). The underlying reasons for this outcome are unclear. We found no significant correlation between randomTF P-value and transfer functionperformance, the properties of the training set and reconstruction, or measures of transfer functionfit. These results give cause for concern but we believe it would be extremely premature to discount the results of non-significant reconstructions. We stress the need for more critical assessment of transfer functionoutput, replication of results and ecologically-informed interpretation of palaeoecological data.