Producing distribution maps for a spatially-explicit ecosystem model using large monitoring and environmental databases and a combination of interpolation and extrapolation

To be able to simulate spatial patterns of predator-prey interactions, many spatially-explicit ecosystem modelingplatforms, including Atlantis, need to be provided with distribution maps defining the annual or seasonal spatial distributionsof functional groups and life stages. We developed a methodology combining extrapolation and interpolation of the predictions made by statistical habitat models to produce distribution maps for the fish and invertebrates represented in the Atlantis model of the Gulf of Mexico ( GOM) Large Marine Ecosystem(LME) (“Atlantis- GOM”). This methodology consists of: (1) compiling a large monitoring database, gathering all the fisheries-independent and fisheries-dependent data collected in the northern (U.S.) GOMsince 2000; (2) compiling a large environmental database, storing all the environmental parameters known to influence the spatial distributionpatterns of fish and invertebrates of the GOM; (3) fitting binomial generalized additive models(GAMs) to the large monitoring and environmental databases, and geostatisticalbinomial generalized linear mixed models(GLMMs) to the large monitoring database; and (4) employing GAM predictions to infer spatial distributionsin the southern GOM, and GLMM predictions to infer spatial distributionsin the U.S. GOM. Thus, our methodology allows for reasonable extrapolation in the southern GOMbased on a large amount of monitoring and environmental data, and for interpolation in the U.S. GOMaccurately reflecting the probability of encountering fish and invertebrates in that region. We used an iterative cross-validation procedure to validate GAMs. When a GAM did not pass the validation test, we employed a GAM for a related functional group/life stage to generate distribution maps for the southern GOM. In addition, no geostatisticalGLMMs were fit for the functional groups and life stages whose depth, longitudinal and latitudinal ranges within the U.S. GOMare not entirely covered by the data from the large monitoring database; for those, only GAM predictions were employed to obtain distribution maps for Atlantis- GOM. Pearson residuals were computed to validate geostatisticalbinomial GLMMs. Ultimately, 53 annual maps and 64 seasonal maps (for 32 different functional groups/life stages) were produced for Atlantis- GOM. Our methodology could serve other world’s regions characterized by a large surface area, particularly LMEs bordered by several countries.