STANDARDIZING TYPE Ia SUPERNOVA ABSOLUTE MAGNITUDES USING GAUSSIAN PROCESS DATA REGRESSION

We present a novel class of models for Type Ia supernova time-evolving spectral energy distributions (SEDs) and absolute magnitudes: they are each modeled as stochastic functions described by Gaussian processes. The values of the SED and absolute magnitudes are defined through well-defined regression prescriptions, so that data directly inform the models. As a proof of concept, we implement a model for synthetic photometry built from the spectrophotometric time series from the Nearby Supernova Factory. Absolute magnitudes at peak B brightness are calibrated to 0.13 mag in the g band and to as low as 0.09 mag in the z = 0.25 blueshifted i band, where the dispersion includes contributions from measurement uncertainties and peculiar velocities. The methodology can be applied to spectrophotometric time series of supernovae that span a range of redshifts to simultaneously standardize supernovae together with fitting cosmological parameters.