Nitrate leaching losses from two Baltic Sea catchments under scenarios of changes in land use, land management and climate
2019
Pollution with excess nutrients deteriorate the water quality of the
BalticSea. The effect of combined land use and climate scenarios on nitrate leaching and nitrogen (N) loads to surface waters from two
BalticSea catchments (Norsminde in Denmark and Kocinka in Poland) was explored using different models; the NLES and Daisy models for nitrate leaching, and
MIKE SHEor
MODFLOW/MT3DMS for N transport. Three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1, SSP2 and SSP5) defined change in land use and agricultural activities. The
climate change scenarioscovered 2041–2060 compared with 1991–2010 under RCP8.5, applying four different
climate models. Increases in predicted N-load from climate change vary from 20 to 60% depending on
climate model. SSPs moderate these N-load changes with small changes for SSP1 to large increases for SSP5, with greater increases for Norsminde than Kocinka due to land use differences. This stresses needs for new measures and governing schemes to meet sustainability targets.
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