Silver fir (Abies alba Mill.) is able to thrive and prosper under meso-Mediterranean conditions

Abstract The potential ecological envelope of silver fir (Abies alba Mill.) based on its present distribution suggests a high suitability for moist rather than warm and dry environments. This contrasts with paleoecological evidence reporting its former presence at low elevations under meso-Mediterranean conditions. In this study, we evaluated the growth performance of silver fir at low elevation (20–60 m a.s.l.) under meso-Mediterranean climatic conditions in Tuscany (central Italy). We conducted a dendroecological analysis on Abies alba trees along a geomorphological gradient (from depression to upper slope conditions). Climate-growth relationships were assessed by means of correlations, response functions, pointer years, and superposed epoch analysis. Silver fir was found to grow and regenerate well in these stands mixed with evergreen (e.g., Quercus ilex L.) and thermophilous deciduous Mediterranean tree species (e.g., Q. cerris L.). Summer drought was the most growth-influencing factor, with immediate (i.e., current season) negative impacts on tree-ring widths (TRW). No significant impacts were observed in the four years following extreme summer droughts, but the TRW series (which started between the 1930s and 1950s) showed a growth decline since the mid-1990s that is likely drought-related. Our results show that, provided there is a sufficiently large soil water holding capacity, silver fir provenances exist which are able to withstand Mediterranean summer droughts, can naturally and regularly regenerate in these systems, and may even dominate over typical meso-Mediterranean species. As long as annual precipitation is not too low (i.e., >850 mm) and summer drought conditions not too extreme (i.e., less than three months), silver fir has thus the potential to thrive under warm Mediterranean conditions.