Do Realized Skewness and Kurtosis Predict the Cross-Section of Equity Returns?
2011
Yes. We use intraday data to compute weekly
realized variance,
skewnessand
kurtosisfor individual equities and assess whether this week?s
realizedmoments predict next week?s
stockreturns in the cross-section. We sort
stockseach week according to their past
realizedmoments, form
decileportfolios and analyze subsequent weekly returns. We ?nd a very strong negative relationship between
realized
skewnessand next week?s
stockreturns, and a positive relationship between
realized
kurtosisand next week?s
stockreturns. We do not ?nd a strong relationship between
realizedvolatility and
stockreturns. A
trading strategythat buys
stocksin the lowest
realized
skewness
decileand sells
stocksin the highest
realized
skewness
decilegenerates an average weekly return of 43
basis pointswith a
t-statisticof 8:91. A similar strategy that buys
stockswith high
realized
kurtosisand sells
stockswith low
realized
kurtosisproduces a weekly return of 16
basis pointswith a
t-statisticof 2:98. Our results are robust across sample periods, portfolio weightings, and proxies for ?rm characteristics, and they are not captured by the Fama-French and Carhart factors.
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