Expert views on low-carbon transition strategies for the Dutch solar sector: A delay-based fuzzy cognitive mapping approach

Abstract Despite recent growth in respective investments, the Netherlands is not expected to achieve its near-term renewable energy targets, indicating that policy design tends to overlook specific uncertainties and implementation risks. In the aim of supporting policymaking towards a low-carbon transition of the Dutch power sector with a focus on solar power, this study employs a stakeholder-driven approach based on fuzzy cognitive maps, while considering the notion of time. Results appear to strongly depend on expectations of future socioeconomic developments and show that stakeholders favour soft measures over financial incentives.