Simulation and Projection of Monso on Rainfall and Rain Patterns over Eastern China under Global Warming by RegCM3

AbstractThe authors investigate possible changes of monsoon rainfall and associated seasonal (June-July-August) anomaly patterns over eastern China in the late 21st century under the IntergovernmentalPanel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Reporton Emission Scenarios(SRES) A2 emission scenario as simulated by a high-resolution regional climate model (RegCM3) nested in a general circulation model(FvGCM/CCM3). Two sets of multi-decadal simulations are performed at 20-km grid spacing for present day and future climate conditions. Results show that the RegCM3 reproduces the mean rain-fall distribution; however the evolution of the monsoon rain belt from South China to North China is not well simulated. Concerning the rain pattern classifications, RegCM3 overestimates the occurrence of Pattern 1 (excessive rainfall in northern China) and underestimates that of Pattern 2 (increased rainfall over the Huai River basin). Under future climate conditions, RegCM3 projects less occurrence of Pattern 1, more of Patt...