Development of a Global Mineral Dust Model and Its Application to the Forecast of Kosa Phenomena

We describe the development of a global mineral dust transport model and its application to the forecast of Kosa phenomena by Meteorological Research Institute and Japan Meteorological Agency. The model incorporates the dust emission by wind erosion, the advective transport by large-scale circulation, the vertical eddy diffusion by turbulence, the vertical transport by cumulus convection, and the removal by dry and wet deposition processes. Simulations of large-scale Kosa phenomena in March and November 2002 show that the model well reproduced the characteristics of the phenomena. The forecast experiment of Kosa phenomenon on 12 November 2002 demonstrates that the model can forecast the arrival of dust to Japan from 111 hours before, which is even before the occurrence of dust storm in China. Future subjects of Kosa forecast include the consideration of other aerosol species, the incorporation of the present conditions of the dust source regions, the data assimilation of dust distribution, and the refinement in the resolution of the model.