Climate change and forest management on federal lands in the Pacific Northwest, USA: Managing for dynamic landscapes

Abstract The 1994 Northwest Forest Plan signified a watershed moment for natural resource management on federal lands in the Pacific Northwest. It established clear priorities for ecologically motivated management of terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems and biodiversity conservation on nearly 10 million hectares of public lands in Oregon, Washington, and northern California. Conservation reserves were the primary means of safeguarding remaining old forest and riparian habitats, and the populations of northern spotted owl, marbled murrelet, and Pacific salmon that depend on them. As envisioned, reserves would provide habitat for the protected species during a lengthy recovery period. However, reserve strategies were grounded on two tacit assumptions: the climate is stable, and there are limited disruptions by invasive species; neither of which has turned out to be true. Managing for northern spotted owls and other late-successional and old forest associated species within the context of static reserves has turned out to be incredibly challenging. As climatic and wildfire regimes continually shift and rapidly reshape landscapes and habitats, conservation efforts that rely solely on maintaining static conditions within reserves are likely to fail, especially in seasonally dry forests. Forest planners and managers are now occupied with efforts to amend or revise Forest Plans within the NWFP area. According to the 2012 Planning Rule, their charge is to focus management on restoring ecosystem integrity and resiliency and address impacts of climate change and invasive species. Here, we integrate information from ecological and climate sciences, species recovery planning, and forest plan monitoring to identify management adaptations that can help managers realize the original Plan goals as integrated with the goals of the 2012 Planning Rule. There are no guarantees associated with any future planning scenario; continual learning and adaptation are necessary. Our recommendations include managing for dynamic rather than static conditions in seasonally dry forests, managing dynamically shifting reserves in wetter forests, where dynamics occur more slowly, reducing stressors in aquatic and riparian habitats, and significantly increased use of adaptive management and collaborative planning.